Year 11 - Maths
Advanced problem solving with conditional probability
Conditional probability
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This pupil-friendly study guide includes a unit summary, clear notes, common mistakes, and quick questions with answers.
Unit Summary
In this unit, pupils use their knowledge of calculating theoretical probabilities and extend it to calculate conditional probabilities.
Lesson Summary
You will learn to use your knowledge of conditional probability to solve problems.
Key Notes
- Probabilities may appear in unfamiliar contexts
- Probabilities may require a strong knowledge of converting between fractions, decimals and percentages
- Selecting an appropriate and efficient method for solving the problem comes from evaluating methods
- The preferred representation may change depending on the context
Vocabulary To Learn
- Probability: The probability that an event will occur is the proportion of times the event is expected to happen in a suitably large experiment.
- Exhaustive events: A set of events are exhaustive if at least one of them has to occur whenever the experiment is carried out.
- Mutually exclusive: Mutually exclusive events have no outcomes in common.
- Venn diagram: Venn diagrams are a representation used to model statistical/probability questions. Commonly circles are used to represent events.
Common Mistakes To Avoid
- Pupils may think that only one type of diagram/table can be used to solve each probability problem, or be unsure which representation to use when it is not provided to them.
3 Quick Questions (With Answers)
1. Solve this in steps: explain the method from this lesson and why each step matters.
Probabilities may appear in unfamiliar contexts. Probabilities may require a strong knowledge of converting between fractions, decimals and percentages.
2. Use this key word in a maths sentence and explain it clearly. 'Probability'
The probability that an event will occur is the proportion of times the event is expected to happen in a suitably large experiment. Use this word when showing your method, then check your final answer is reasonable.
3. Spot and fix this common maths mistake.
Mistake: Pupils may think that only one type of diagram/table can be used to solve each probability problem, or be unsure which representation to use when it is not provided to them. Correction: Probability problems can often be modelled using multiple types of representation. The one you choose may depend on the information that you are trying to organise and what you then intend to do with that information.
More Lessons In This Unit
- Algebra in tree and Venn diagrams Study Guide
- Checking and securing calculating probabilities from diagrams Study Guide
- Checking and securing calculating probabilities from tables Study Guide
- Checking and securing displaying outcomes Study Guide
- Checking and securing exhaustive events Study Guide
- Combinations Study Guide
- Comparing multiple representations to calculate conditional probabilities Study Guide
- Conditional probability in a tree diagram Study Guide
- Conditional probability in a two-way table Study Guide
- Conditional probability in a Venn diagram Study Guide
- Constructing three event Venn diagrams Study Guide
- Experimental probability Study Guide
- Experimental vs theoretical probability Study Guide
- Frequency trees Study Guide
- Probabilities in three event Venn diagrams Study Guide
- Probabilities involving algebra Study Guide
- Problem solving with conditional probability Study Guide
- Set notation Study Guide
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