Year 11 - Maths
Experimental probability
Conditional probability
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This pupil-friendly study guide includes a unit summary, clear notes, common mistakes, and quick questions with answers.
Unit Summary
In this unit, pupils use their knowledge of calculating theoretical probabilities and extend it to calculate conditional probabilities.
Lesson Summary
You will learn to decide if a game/object is fair and calculate the experimental probability.
Key Notes
- A set of results can be critically evaluated to help determine if a game/object is fair
- Different samples and may affect your perception of fair
- The experimental probability of an outcome/event can be calculated from a set of results
- Experimental probabilities can be used to estimate an event may occur in a set number of trials
Vocabulary To Learn
- Experimental probability: The frequency of an outcome from an experiment can be used to produce an experimental probability. This is sometimes referred to as relative frequency.
- Fair: A trial or experiment is fair if each outcome has an equal chance of happening. Each outcome is said to be equally likely.
- Bias: If there is bias, in a trial or experiment, the outcomes are not equally likely.
Common Mistakes To Avoid
- If outcome A occurs more often than outcome B, during an experiment, pupils may conclude that outcome A has a greater probability of occurring than outcome B in future trials.
3 Quick Questions (With Answers)
1. Solve this in steps: explain the method from this lesson and why each step matters.
A set of results can be critically evaluated to help determine if a game/object is fair. Different samples and may affect your perception of fair.
2. Use this key word in a maths sentence and explain it clearly. 'Experimental probability'
The frequency of an outcome from an experiment can be used to produce an experimental probability. This is sometimes referred to as relative frequency. Use this word when showing your method, then check your final answer is reasonable.
3. Spot and fix this common maths mistake.
Mistake: If outcome A occurs more often than outcome B, during an experiment, pupils may conclude that outcome A has a greater probability of occurring than outcome B in future trials. Correction: Even when two outcomes are equally likely to happen, one may occur more often than the other due to chance. You could be more confident about your conclusion if you observe a large difference in results in an experiment with a large number of trials.
More Lessons In This Unit
- Advanced problem solving with conditional probability Study Guide
- Algebra in tree and Venn diagrams Study Guide
- Checking and securing calculating probabilities from diagrams Study Guide
- Checking and securing calculating probabilities from tables Study Guide
- Checking and securing displaying outcomes Study Guide
- Checking and securing exhaustive events Study Guide
- Combinations Study Guide
- Comparing multiple representations to calculate conditional probabilities Study Guide
- Conditional probability in a tree diagram Study Guide
- Conditional probability in a two-way table Study Guide
- Conditional probability in a Venn diagram Study Guide
- Constructing three event Venn diagrams Study Guide
- Experimental vs theoretical probability Study Guide
- Frequency trees Study Guide
- Probabilities in three event Venn diagrams Study Guide
- Probabilities involving algebra Study Guide
- Problem solving with conditional probability Study Guide
- Set notation Study Guide
Browse all guides in the Year 11 Maths guide library.